/ SILVER NOTES
AI is lifting silver demand while solar is shrinking it.
AI demand and falling industrial silver consumption can coexist. The April 2026 World Silver Survey records industrial demand falling in 2025 and forecasts another decline in 2026, despite gains linked to AI-related data centres. [S1]
Read the whole demand table
These Metals Focus figures from the April 2026 survey are in million ounces. The final column is a forecast, not an observed 2026 result. Photovoltaics sit within electrical and electronics demand, which sits within industrial demand; the rows must not be added together. A negative market balance denotes a deficit. [S1]
| Measure | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total demand | 1,284.1 | 1,197.0 | 1,157.4 | 1,130.6 | 1,112.6 |
| Industrial | 592.3 | 657.1 | 679.0 | 657.4 | 639.6 |
| Electrical and electronics | 370.7 | 444.4 | 460.9 | 449.5 | 422.9 |
| Of which photovoltaics | 118.1 | 192.7 | 197.5 | 186.6 | 151.0 |
| Market balance | -254.0 | -200.1 | -137.9 | -40.3 | -46.3 |
Three dated statements about AI
On 16 April 2025, the Silver Institute said demand “was further boosted by end-uses related to artificial intelligence (AI), which drove growth in consumer electronics shipments”. This documents an AI contribution, without assigning it a separate annual ounce total. [S4]
On 10 February 2026, its outlook said “the expansion of data centers, artificial intelligence-related technologies, and the automotive sector are expected to support silver consumption”. The wording is prospective and names several sources of support. [S5]
On 15 April 2026, its account of the 2025 industrial decline said it fell “as a contraction in PV demand and thrifting elsewhere outweighed gains linked to AI-related data-centers”. The three statements are compatible: growth in one use need not prevent a decline across the whole sector. [S6] [S1]
The electricity link
The IEA's April 2025 Energy and AI report put data centre electricity use at 415 terawatt hours in 2024, about 1.5 percent of world electricity, and projected about 945 terawatt hours by 2030. It expected renewables to meet half the growth and data centres to account for about one tenth of global electricity demand growth. [S8]
The IEA's 2026 update reported data centre electricity use rising 17 percent in 2025. Technology companies signed about 40 percent of corporate renewable power purchase agreements; a large share of new projects relied on onsite gas. The IEA's Renewables 2025 outlook put solar PV at nearly 80 percent of renewable capacity growth over 2025 to 2030. Together these figures support a power link, without quantifying silver consumed for data centre electricity. [S9] [S10]
More solar, less silver per watt
Solar Power World on 16 March 2026 reported silver loadings of about 10 milligrams per watt for PERC cells, 13 for TOPCon and 22 for HJT. The April 2026 survey put TOPCon's 2025 share above 80 percent. Those cell figures should retain their source date, rather than being treated as permanent requirements. [S11] [S1]
The April 2026 survey reported loadings falling more than 15 percent in 2025, with another 15 to 20 percent reduction expected in 2026. Pastes with 10 percent silver content were in volume production by the fourth quarter of 2025. Mainstream cells were expected below 5 milligrams per watt by 2027; copper electroplating could bring the figure below 1. These are distinct reported developments and expectations, not a single achieved industry average. [S1]
On 9 July 2026, pv magazine reported LONGi starting a 21 gigawatt production line for copper metallized cells. Against that substitution background, the April 2026 survey forecast PV silver demand dropping from 186.6 million ounces in 2025 to 151.0 million in 2026, about 19 percent. More solar capacity does not guarantee more silver consumption. [S12] [S1]
The counter case and the net effect
The April 2026 survey put primary silver mines at only 26 percent of mine supply, a record low. USGS's 2026 summary describes silver as “primarily obtained as a byproduct”. That limits how directly silver's own price can elicit mine supply; it does not establish a permanently widening shortage. [S1] [S7]
The April 2026 survey says the structural deficit “should erode over time”, although its 2026 forecast deficit of 46.3 million ounces exceeds 2025's 40.3 million. High prices also reduced jewellery and silverware demand in 2025, with further reductions forecast for 2026. [S1]
Even a 42 million ounce data centre scenario is under 4 percent of the 2026 total demand forecast. The April 2026 table's net result is lower industrial consumption despite AI support: solar thrifting and substitution matter alongside the build-out. None of these demand figures supplies a price prediction. [S1]
Sources
- [S1] World Silver Survey 2026, April 2026
- [S4] Silver Institute demand statement, 16 April 2025
- [S5] Silver Institute outlook, 10 February 2026
- [S6] Silver Institute survey release, 15 April 2026
- [S7] USGS silver summary, 2026
- [S8] IEA Energy and AI, April 2025
- [S9] IEA energy and AI update, 2026
- [S10] IEA Renewables 2025
- [S11] Solar Power World, 16 March 2026
- [S12] pv magazine, 9 July 2026
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